When will Shanghai inflection point appear?Zhang Wenhong latest research and judgment

2022-04-27 0 By

Wu Jinglei, director of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, Jiang Long, Deputy Head of Putuo District, and Zhang Wenhong, head of Shanghai COVID-19 expert team and director of Huashan Hospital’s Infectious Disease Department, introduced the latest situation of Shanghai’s epidemic prevention and control work at a press conference on March 25.During the meeting, 29 new local COVID-19 cases and 1,580 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were reported in Shanghai from 00:00 to 24:00 on March 24. Among them, 12 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,455 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were found in isolation and control, while the rest were found in related risk groups.Wearing masks is a very important part of the prevention and control of Omicron. At the meeting, Zhang Wenhong was asked by a reporter: Now that communities have been unblocked and people have gone out one after another, can people still wear masks to prevent the disease?Do you have any other advice on wearing masks?Zhang wenhong said that the question of masks has been asked for many years, and has been asked since the outbreak.I’m sure it’s not necessary for me to answer the question of how to wear a mask, but it’s really important.I am here to tell you that wearing masks is a very important part of the whole process of omicron prevention and control.Zhang wenhong said that today we are facing the transmission of the second generation of Omicron, the prevention and control pressure is very big.In principle, masks have a very limited effect, but what is needed now is a combination of prevention and control measures to make a fundamental change in omicron’s ability to stop transmission.Zhang Wenhong: Masks cannot be removed without the third dose of vaccine.Zhang Wenhong: The number of infected people has remained high in recent days. Could you tell us why?’I have been in charge of medical treatment, and I have indeed seen an increasing number of patients and asymptomatic infected patients quarantined in hospitals in recent days, which means that the increased number of cases has put pressure on the entire medical system,’ Said Dr. Zhang.In fact, patients, more or less, ultimately care about whether the disease poses a very big threat to us.One of the most important aspects of this very big threat is the risk of a run on health care resources, and what you care about is the number of cases, but what you care about is the risk of an outbreak, and that’s what we’re facing.’As a clinician, we have been comparing the current risk in Shanghai with the global response,’ Dr. Zhang said.In the end, China will go out of its own way to fight the epidemic. Recently, you have seen that the third edition of the national nucleic acid testing guidelines has been updated, which states that each region can choose nucleic acid testing areas according to its own specific conditions.From this, you can see the strategy adopted by Shanghai.Zhang Wenhong said, “As a clinical treatment expert, MY concern is the same as yours: is the epidemic under control?If not controlled, we risk a run on healthcare resources.Zhang wenhong mentioned one problem: the nature of the virus itself.He introduced that the virus is constantly updated and iterated, from the earliest epidemic in 2020 to now, Omicron has reached the second generation, the epidemic in Shanghai is BA.2, the transmission intensity should be 9.5 R0 value exactly.This means that one person can transmit 10 people, and the R0 value of one person is around 2.5-3 in early 2020.This means that the force of transmission is now almost three to five times greater than the force of earlier transmission.Zhang Wenhong calculated a simple formula: a person can transmit 10 people, the intergenerational incubation period is also shortening, basic 3 days can transmit a generation.One person at the beginning, 10 in three days, 100 in six days.If this person is out and about, it could be 1,000 people in 10 days.This is the so-called exponential increase. If we had not taken effective measures to prevent and control the increase, the figure would have been in the tens of thousands from March 10 to March 25.’Many people will wonder whether we should adopt stricter control measures,’ Mr. Zhang said. ‘It’s a matter of ultimately adopting prevention and control strategies.’At several press conferences held in Shanghai recently, I saw a lot of explanations from prevention and control experts on Shanghai’s knowledge of prevention and control.I am here to tell you that the decision to transmit this virus has been made in different parts of the world in response to what now appears to be a far stronger transmission than in previous generations of Novel Coronavirus transmission.’In Shanghai, the exponential rise in transmission was interrupted by our prevention and control strategy,’ Mr. Zhang said. ‘We are not locking down the city. We are doing rolling screening.’If we see the proportion of screening in unregulated areas coming down today, the final inflection point is bound to occur.Zhang Wenhong: Shanghai’s exponential rise has been interrupted.If the case screening rate in non-containment areas continues to decline, the inflection point will soon come. Zhang Wenhong said that recently, when the municipal government is doing relevant control, it hopes to control the community more and more accurately.With more and more open communities, is it possible to ensure that nucleic acid testing is at the right level?That’s a big problem.So can the inflection point be reached?Zhang Wenhong said that for Omicron, in principle, all the measures taken now, if only people work at home, or do not go to school, or people do not go to restaurants, the R0 value is less than 1, definitely not, that is, it will continue to spread, and continue to rise exponentially.But now that we’re at the position of nucleic acid, we can get R0 below 1.Zhang wenhong said, here I am a clinical treatment expert, and the municipal Health Commission is working day and night to improve the nucleic acid testing capacity, to ensure that nucleic acid is more easily available in every part of the city.On the other hand, we hope everyone can cooperate in the rolling screening process. Only when the nucleic acid is in position, can all the previous measures really take effect, and we can control the R0 value below 1.When does the inflection point occur?Zhang Wenhong reminded people to pay attention to the proportion of cases screened out in non-containment areas.If the ratio continues to fall, he said, a turning point will soon be reached.The situation is still very serious. Why?Now the citizens of the city are working together with relevant epidemic prevention departments to see if nucleic acid testing can be carried out as quickly as possible.If the technology can be in place, the cooperation of citizens can be in place, and all aspects are in place, and the containment time is minimized, China will eventually defeat the virus, but it will take a long time.”Today’s prevention and control measures may contain the virus at a very low level for a long time,” Zhang said. “We still need to adjust our control measures according to the number of cases.”The question is very complicated. If we turn the corner today, is the world better?That’s not the case.We may need a long time.No country can defeat the virus without taking a long time.It will take a long time, patience, courage and wisdom to overcome the epidemic.’Shanghai is the most difficult city right now,’ Mr. Zhang said. ‘Without the help of all the citizens, I personally don’t think experts can solve the problem, and I myself can only save a few patients a day.Efforts should be made on all sides.Source: China News Service (CNS1952 reporter Chen Jing) integrated thepaper.cn, CCTV news client